The hike in anti-dumping duty on Indian shrimp exports to US in the final review by the US Department of Commerce (USDoC) is unlikely to have a material impact on Indian exports, says rating agency ICRA.
During the twelfth final review notified on July 16, 2018, the USDoC hiked the weighted-average anti-dumping duty (ADD) imposed on Indian export of shrimp to the US from 0.84% to 1.35%. This, however, is lower than the preliminary rate notified in March 2018 of 2.34%.
India was the largest exporter of frozen shrimp to the US in 2017 with 32% share after some south Asian producers like Thailand suffered due to diseases in fish farms.
Pavethra Ponniah, vice-president and sector head, ICRA, said: “We do not anticipate any material impact on volume of shrimp exports from India to the US, because of the hike in ADD. Given that the Indian shrimp export industry is a price taker, impact of this ADD hike will have to be absorbed across the supply chain, especially by the farmers.”
The two mandatory respondents selected for the current review were Devi Fisheries (Devi) and the Liberty Group and the countrywide ADD is arrived based on the value-weighted-average ADD levied on the two mandatory respondents. Devi and Liberty group together account for approximately 7% of the processed shrimp volumes exported from India during FY2017.
The US government imposed an anti-dumping duty on frozen warm-water Indian shrimps in 2004 saying that it was hurting US shrimp farmers. The Coalition of Gulf Shrimp Industries (COGSI), an association of shrimp farmers, has been fighting aquaculture shrimp imports into US, claiming that artificially low-priced imported shrimp from seven countries including India have suppressed and depressed domestic prices, eroded domestic sales, destroyed US jobs and eliminated the operating margins of domestic producers.
The effect of the anti-dumping duty from 2004 was dramatic on Indian exports. Indian shrimp exporting companies to US fell to less than 75 from 228 at the time of imposition of the punitive duties.
“However, with the global industry witnessing sharp decline in realisations since November 2017, because of demand-supply mismatches, improvement in base price for the Indian shrimp farmers and processors would be critical for ensuring that Indian farmers continue to stock their ponds in the ensuing season. The final review of Vietnam’s ADD is also a monitorable as Vietnam competes with India in the global markets; Vietnam preliminary review (notified in March 2018) came in at a staggering high 25.39%,” Ponniah added.
ICRA reports that during the period FY14-18, total Indian shrimp exports grew at a CAGR of approximately 20% in terms of volume. This growth was fuelled by the increase in exports to US and Vietnam. The export contribution from Vietnam surged from 16.1% (FY2014) to 25.4% (FY2018) owing to weak local production dynamics in Vietnam, coupled with strong demand. Vietnam continues to be the second largest export destination for Indian shrimp.
Frozen shrimp maintained its position as the key contributor to India’s seafood export basket, accounting for 41.10% in quantity and 68.46% of the total dollar earnings from the total exports of 13,77,244 tonnes valued at $7.08 billion.